Modelling exchange of probabilistic opinions

Summary. This paper studies how communication or exchange of opinions influences correlation of beliefs. The paper focuses on a situation in which agents communicate with each other infinitely many times without observing data. It is an extension to the ‘Expert Problem’ in Bayesian theory, where the informational flow is asymmetric. Moreover, this paper generalizes the existing literature of communication that employs the common prior assumption (CPA) by allowing for heterogeneous beliefs. Some basic convergence results are shown in contrast with the results obtained under the CPA. Furthermore, several economic implications of the basic results are provided. Received: August 27, 2001; revised version: April 16, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" The results presented in this paper are taken from my Ph.D. thesis at Stanford University. I gratefully acknowledge the inspiration obtained from innumerable discussions with Mordecai Kurz about this subject. Also, I appreciate comments from Kenneth J. Arrow, Peter J. Hammond, Maurizio Motolese, Carsten K. Nielsen, Ho-Mou Wu and the anonymous referee.     

城市地理学研究新的领域思考

改革开放以来，由于国民经济的迅速发展，我国工业化、城市化的进程明显加快。从国情分析可知，我国的城市化出现了五种特有的现象，这为城市地理学的研究提供了广阔的平台。城市地理学在我国城市发展与城市化的重大问题研究上，长期以来取得了许多重要成果，理论方法上也有重大建树，成为人文科学与自然科学研究领域中最为活跃的一支生力军^①。文章从我国实际出发，提出了城市地理学研究的思维方法及其若干新的研究领域。     

房地产还原利率的构成与测算

从分析投资的风险补偿入手，提出了房地产还原利率的构成和测算公式，同时指出了构成房地产还原利率的银行利率应是复利计算方式下，相应年期的利率，然后探讨了房地产还原利率各构成部分的测算过程，并以中国房地产市场个人住房抵押贷款市场为例，给出了不同收益年限的房地产还原利率参考数据。     

Outsourcing, Imports and Labour Demand

This paper examines the effects of purchased services and imported intermediate materials on the labour demand for different skills in German manufacturing sectors. We derive and estimate a factor demand system based on the generalised Box–Cox cost function nesting both the normalised quadratic and the translog functional form. We find that the impacts of output and capital growth are more important in explaining the demand for heterogeneous labour than substitution effects between labour and non–labour inputs. Similarly, the increasing use of both imported materials and purchased services is a consequence of output growth rather than input substitution.
JEL classification : J 23; O 33     

Non-commitment in performance evaluation and the problem of information distortions

Auditing is modeled in a sequential game without commitment. The manager must decide whether and where to audit a worker's output, taking into account all interim information he has obtained. The worker will work just hard enough (and show it) to divert the manager from making an audit or cover up, withholding information about his work to make an audit more difficult. This usually raises the costs of setting work incentives, so incentives are softened, sometimes drastically. Moreover, when a worker's on-the-job information is valuable for entrepreneurial decisions, work incentives must be softened to improve the internal flow of information.     

第二产业主导产业的选择与实证分析

中国目前仍处于传统工业化中期,今后的任务是推进工业现代化,向发达经济阶段迈进.第二产业主导产业的发展在整个经济发展中处于举足轻重的地位,因此,第二产业主导产业的选择是加速发展第二产业的关键,正确确定目前第二产业中的主导产业,对中国第二产业以及整个国民经济的发展意义重大.本文以第二产业主导产业选择的基准为依据,运用主成份分析法,确定了2000-2050年各阶段第二产业的主导产业.     

厂商的密集性进入与产业链纵向关系治理——基于中国汽车产业的分析

随着产业进入管制的逐步放松,厂商的密集性进入不仅改变了产业链的横向市场结构,也为产业链纵向关系治理模式的重新选择创造条件.面对中国汽车产业发展的这一现状,本文在文献回顾的基础上,通过对一个连续古诺模型的分析,认为下游整车厂商的密集性进入将导致产业链的部分或完全分拆,其具体形式取决于初始状态和上游厂商的数量.最后,结合国际经验以及国内新近产业政策设计和汽车企业的策略实践辅以论证说明.     

论缓停建工程中优先权的冲突与顺位确定

由于缓停建工程所涉及的法律权利的复合性与多重性,债权人在实现自己的债权时势必会与他人的民事权利产生冲突,须确立一定的规则来协调各种权利冲突,使处于优位的特定债权人的利益得到保障。在确立解决优先权之间冲突原则的基础上,尚须对各项权利安排合理的顺位,以为法院处理此类问题提供一条切实可行的思路。     

公司治理结构·会计信息系统·独立审计:结构与效率分析

公司治理结构、会计信息系统和独立审计是微观经济运行系统的三个基本组成单元。三者以委托代理关系为中心形成了功能互补、共生互动的经济运行系统 ,共同维持着受托责任机制运行中的公平与效率。通过对三者的经济关系结构进行理论描述 ,分析其内在关系结构的缺陷以及与虚假会计信息之间的关联性 ,并在此基础上提出共同预防虚假会计信息的治理措施     

浙江省科技型中小企业的产业发展特征与股权激励模式的选择

主要根据浙江省科技民营企业的产业发展特征，对实施企业股权激励机制的模式选择问题进行深入研究与探讨。首先，分析论述了企业产业发展特征对企业激励模式选择的影响；在此基础上，对浙江省科技民营企业实施股权激励机制几个理论问题进行分析与探讨。